Time to Buy Sell or Hold Gold (Transcript)

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Hi, Bob Barney with The Plain Truth today, and what we’re going to talk about today is something we talk about from time to time, and it’s a little different than the war. The war has a little bit to do with it, but it really has to do with gold and silver, because if you’ve been listening to The Plain Truth today, and if you’ve been reading ThePlainTruth.com now for the last 18 years, you know our position that, and the biblical position, that wealth is measured in silver and gold, and especially gold. And if you’ve been watching the news, they’re gleefully telling you how gold has collapsedafter its record rise, doubling and tripling over the last five years in value.But I want to go my view on what’s going on, why it’s going on, and what I think you should be aware of if you are owning gold, or if you’re considering to own gold. I’m going to play a few outtakes from Peter Schiff, who you know is what I think one of the best experts on gold, and some other points of view. Why did gold collapse so fast? Well, it’s the war.And one of the things, I’m going to play this in a second, is what’s happening is a lot of the Arab countries that have a lot of gold reserves are selling their gold reserves hastily, because they need to finance this war. Now, they do have oil, you know, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and UAE, they have oil, and the oil is going up high, and so therefore they’re making money there, but they can’t get it out of the Strait of Hormuz, so they’re not being able to get that cash. So they need immediate cash, and gold is at an all-time high.They bought their gold probably in the 1,000, 8,000, I’m sorry, 1,000 or 2,000 dollar mark, a lot of their gold. They’ve been buying it all along, so they have some gold they probably have up to 4,000 dollars in. But no matter how you look at it, if you take your older gold reserves that you paid, let’s say, 1,500 dollars for, and you could start selling it when it was at 5,000 a week ago, and then sell it all the way down where it floods the market, and of course, supply and demand, gold is going to go down, and it went down a lot.I’m going to play this now and explain what happens here, and what I think is going to be the result of it. This is a person named Nick Valdez. I’m not that familiar with him, but he’s got some pertinent news about why gold went down so much.And in fact, gold has had its worst weekly performance since 1983. Now, we are seeing unconfirmed reports that Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar’s central banks are offloading gold reserves to raise funds. Now, here’s exactly why you should be worried about those three countries in particular.We’re going to look at gold reserves the difference between 2019 to 2024, and then we’re going to look at the most recent data, Q4 2025. Now, Saudi Arabia is 15th for gold reserves, and Qatar is pretty low. They’re ranked 35, and UAE is also low, 41.But look at the difference of the year change. The second to bottom line, 231% change in gold reserves. So measuring from 2019 to 24, UAE is ranked number five, and Qatar is ranked number seven.So these two countries are top 10 when it comes to gold accumulation by percentage of reserves, and that’s even more interesting when you zoom out and see how small those countries really are. Now, this is Q4 2025 gold reserves, and measuring the change from Q3 2025, and you’ll see one of the largest droppers, Qatar, right here. They moved almost a ton of gold in the last quarter, and you also have the Russian Federation selling pretty heavily.Would not be surprised if those countries have really accelerated selling over the last week or so as well. Now, we’re going to look at those historical returns on gold, like I said, seven days later, 60 days later, two years later, but we’re also going to look at the average and maybe try to see where’s gold heading from here. Well, what this guy goes into, this guy Nick, what he goes into is that in 1980, gold dropped 13%.It was the record at the time. Seven days later, it had rebounded by 3%, but 60 days later, it had a second drop of 21%, and then two years later, it was still 40% lower. And in 1983, which most people are comparing this to, gold had a 12.1% drop in one day, but seven days later, it was up 6%.60 days later, it was up almost 7.5%. But again, two years later, it was down that same 40%. And then again, some of the people, including this person here, believes that it is very possible that gold is going to remain low or even go down from here. And actually, he thinks it is a time to buy when you think it’s even going to get lower.I don’t believe it’s going to go much lower, but I didn’t think it was going to go below 4,500. It went down to almost 4,000 when Trump put out his statement that made oil go up, you know, radically high, and then gold plummeted. But that same hour, he reversed that decision, and the stock markets that were crashing boomed, oil fell, the biggest record one hour fall in the price of oil, and gold rebounded almost all of its loss.And so I am not in the position to, I don’t recommend anything to anybody, you do your own research, but I am not believing we are following 1980 and 1983. I’m not believing that at all. I believe because of the unstable world.Remember, who was president in 1980 was Jimmy Carter, and who was president in 1983 was Ronald Reagan. And for both governments, excuse me, I had a little bit of a cough there, in both instances, neither the Democrat nor the Republican could force gold to go back up by their policies. But at the same time, the reason for that being is the world was not as unstable as it is right now, and you didn’t have commercial buyers of gold back then.By then, you had very rich billionaires and multi-millionaires and central banks around the world buying and selling gold. And when they saw it was not in their interest to own gold anymore, they offloaded it all. And that’s really what happened there.And what’s happening now, in my opinion, is there are so many novices, including myself, buying gold and silver, and done very well in the last two and a half, three years, that’s when I started, but people before that, I would say in the last seven years, you almost quadrupled your money if you bought right, that I do not believe are going to follow the same trends of 1980 and 1983. I don’t think gold’s going to stay where it is because the world is not anywhere stable like it was during the Reagan years. In the Reagan years, you had, you know, I always say adults in the room, you had sound decisions, and there was, and Wall Street was constantly going up, and so people thought, you know, it may be best to own Wall Street for a while because that’s going up and it’s a safe thing for me.It’s in America. I don’t have to physically own it. I don’t have to have it in my house or in a bank account that costs money if you have a lock box, you know, at a bank where you should have it if you have any real amount of gold.And so those years do not match these years. Now, we have a lot of, like I said, new investors in gold who saw a lot of fortune made in gold, and when it got so high and so unstable, and theseother countries started selling their gold and it started going down, that started a lot of people selling gold that they bought quite cheaply to start selling it and make instant profits this year. They don’t have to wait until next year to pay the tax on any capital gains, and so they figured we can buy it now, I’m sorry, we can sell it now, and then buy it back before the end of the year and not have to pay any taxes at all and make a windfill profit at the same time that really doesn’t count on your taxes.And I think that’s what’s going on. Now, I’m going to go to Peter Schiff, who I think believes about the same thing that I’m saying, and let’s listen to what he has to say, and I think you’ll see that he agrees exactly what I’m saying. In fact, silver is almost down 50%.

Peter Schiff
It got above 120%, not quite 50% now at 68%, but over 40% from its peak. Now, gold and silver stocks, as you would expect, also got killed on the week with the GDX down 15.5%, and the GDXJdown 17%. Now, obviously, depending on your perspective, this is either the worst week ever or since 1983 for gold, or the best week.If you were planning on selling some gold, it was a bad week. But if you wanted to buy more gold, it was a great week. The same thing with silver, because I don’t think this decline does anything to alter the fundamental case for gold or silver.Now, to break in here, he’s going to make the case because the Fed is going to start raising interest rates because our economy is hurting, but the recession looks like it’s not here yet. And I think we are in one. You know what I personally believe.And so there is a very great possibility the Feds are going to raise rates, and this is what he’s talking about next. Peter Schiff, that is. If they raise rates and tighten monetary policy, which would also mean going back to quantitative tightening, if they were to raise rates by a degree that would actually be sufficient to rein in this inflation that they let loose, the rate would be so highthat our debt-laden economy would completely implode, and we’d have a much worse financial crisis than the one we had in 2008.I mean, it wouldn’t even be close to how bad it would be. And the government couldn’t do anything to bail anybody out because the Fed would be hiking rates, not cutting them. So for that reason, I don’t believe the Fed will do what Paul Volcker did in 1980, because from the Fed’s perspective, the cure will be worse than the disease.So the disease of high inflation is going to get worse. The Federal Reserve faces an impossible dilemma where raising interest rates enough to combat runaway inflation would inevitably trigger a debt-fueled economic implosion. Unlike the 1980s, the current levels of national and consumer debt make a Volcker-style intervention a mathematical impossibility, as the resulting financial crisis would dwarf the 2008 collapse.Peter Schiff, a renowned economist and global strategist, argues that the cure, aggressive monetary tightening, has become more dangerous to the system than the disease of inflation itself. He points out that with the U.S. national debt recently surging past $39 trillion, any significant hike in borrowing costs would lead to a catastrophic sovereign debt crisis. Because the Fed is trapped between devaluing the currency and bankrupting the nation, Schiff believes they will choose continued inflation, effectively letting the cost of living soar, rather than allowing a total systemic meltdown.This trajectory suggests that the government has lost its ability to bail out the economy, leaving hard assets as the only remaining shield against a dying fiat system. To say stagflation, most people think of slow growth and high inflation. I think it’s going to be a recession with high inflation, almost like an inflationary depression.Because I don’t think stagflation does it justice, because I think it’s going to be something much worse again than the 1970s. And part of the reason that it doesn’t look as bad now as it did back then is because the government was more honest about the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in the 70s than they are today. Because the methodology that we used to calculate unemployment and inflation were very different.And so when Powell tries to contrast the current unemployment rate with the unemployment rate during the 1970s, it’s apples to oranges. I mean, in fact, it’s not even apples to oranges. It’s apples to bricks.I mean, they’re not even similar because the methodology is so different. So if we kept track of unemployment and inflation, because it’s the same thing, the way we did in the 70s, you would have to double pretty much both the unemployment rate and the inflation rate to get a number that would represent what it would have been had we measured them like we did in the 70s. And that is something I have said in previous programs.

Bob Barney
People don’t realize this, but Jimmy Carter rigged, after years of the government giving honest inflation numbers, rigged inflation numbers, took out gasoline, took out food, took out all kinds ofreal costs that everyday Americans have to pay, and they took it out of the inflation number. And if you were to actually have the true unemployment rate, which you take labor participation, is still at an all-time low of about 60 percent, that shows you, in a way, we have a 35 to 40 percent unemployment rate. It’s that simple.And the reason nobody feels is the government is going deeper and deeper in debt by giving out free money to a lot of people not working. Everybody knows that. And as we keep deporting the people that do work back to where they came from under the new ICE policies, we’re going to see less and less people putting money into the system, but taking money out of the system.This did not happen in the 1970s. It’s happening now. Also, you should notice that Powell might want to raise interest rates, but he’s only going to be there another two months.And then you have a person that was picked by Donald Trump, which has shaken the world as it is, who has basically gone on record that he’s going to ramrod through interest rates cuts. So inflation is going to skyrocket. And I do believe what Peter Schiff said.We are in a depression or a recession leading to a depression. We’re going to have a 1930s-type depression if we do not change things around. And I do not see in this Trump 2.0 anything changing.He is acting like a Democrat. He is spending money like Democrats. He’s getting into world affairs and world wars like Democrats and, I would have to say, neocon Republicans.And when you have John Bolton agreeing with him, you got to realize what’s happening here. And again, I’m not saying I’m against doing this war. I think it was needed.I just don’t think it was planned right. But what I want to say is when the Fed takes over, I don’t believe they’re going to follow Volcker. I think they’re going to lower interest rates continuouslyMoney’s going to get cheap.Oil is going to plummet right now when the recession really fully hits. When people can’t afford four dollars a gallon, five dollars a gallon for gas, they’re going to stop driving. They’re not going to buy things that they don’t need to buy, including paint from me, you know.They’re not just going to buy it. So what’s going to end up happening? You get what’s called in the economic world demand destruction, where the prices become so hard, high, I’m sorry, and people have no job growth. Most people are going to be laid off even more because of AI, that you’re going to have people who cannot afford to buy anything.A depression is what is the result and prices fall. Prices are going to fall like you cannot believe. And when the people who bailed out of gold to buy oil reserves, because they anticipate oil going to two hundred dollars a barrel in a matter of months.So if you had a choice between making twenty percent a year with gold or a hundred percent in two months in oil, what are you going to put your money into? You’re going to put it into oil. But if the war ends, which I think it will end soon because I think we have failed miserably and we are losing, we will find a way to end this war. I don’t think we got a Vietnam.I hope I’m right here because I don’t want to see a quagmire like I have said in the last few episodes. But I think what you’re going to find is people are going to go back to buying gold again. The minute oil can go back through the Strait of Hormuz, you’re going to get a ton of new oil that Saudi Arabia has been stockpiling in Kuwait and these other places and they’re going to flood the market with oil and they’re going to start buying back gold again.It’s the central banks, but there’s a new thing that I just explained earlier that is going on in the gold and silver market that did not happen in 1980 and 1983. And that is John Q. Citizen, with a little bit of money in his pocket, in 1980 or 83 put it into his 401k or he put it into a stock or he put it into the bank and got interest rates or a CD. I know my father loved to buy CDs and put them away for 10 years and get money.That’s how people thought in the 1980s. But what’s going to happen now when people with money need to make a good rate of return, they’re going to go back starting to buy gold. And so it’s not just the central banks that’s going to move gold up.It’s the consumer who’s going to say, I can get gold now for $4,500. You know, I bought a lot of gold at $3,000 and now I got, you know, it’s worth $4,500. Maybe if I buy some more when it goes down maybe to $4,000, I’ll start buying again and it’s going to go up and they’re going to bank on the fact that inflation’s here to stay.And I talk to a lot of people in my business and unlike maybe like 20 years ago, I don’t talk to too many people and mainly, you know, I am talking to business people, not just a consumer. I don’t know how anybody that I talk to who really believe that we have a rosy future coming ahead. I don’t think anybody believes that the country is going to get out of its economic downturn.I think many people think inflation is here to stay, but it is not because they don’t understand demand destruction. But I do think you’re going to see a case, if you don’t lose your head, that you’re going to want to own gold and silver. Silver is more volatile, but it’s cheaper to buy.It’s simple. It’s cheaper to buy if you don’t have a lot of money and it’s still going to go up. But gold is still going to be the currency of the future.The Bible says so, that’s why I believe it. And I’m going to play a movie quote here, and then I’ll finish up the program. There’s something funny going on over there at the bank, George.I’ve never really seen one, but that’s got all the earmarks of being a run. Now, just remember that this thing isn’t as black as it appeared. I have some news for you folks.I was just talking to old man Potter and he’s guaranteed cash payments to the bank. The bank’s going to reopen next week. But George, I’ve got my money here.Did he guarantee this place? Well, no, Charlie. I didn’t even ask him. We don’t need Potter over here.Then I’ll take mine now. No, but you’re… You’re thinking of this place all wrong, as if I had the money back in a safe. The money’s not here.Well, your money’s in Joe’s house. That’s right next to yours, and in the Kennedy house, and Mrs. Maitland’s house, and a hundred others. You’re lending them the money to build, and then they’re going to pay it back to you as best they can.Now, what are you going to do, foreclose on them? I got 242 dollars in here, and 242 dollars isn’t going to break anybody. Okay, Tom. All right.Here you are. You sign this, you get your money in 60 days. 60 days? Well, now that’s what you agreed to when you bought your shares.Tom! Tom! Did you get your money? No. Well, I did. Old man Potter will pay 50 cents on the dollar for every share you’ve got.Yes, cash. Well, what do you say? Now, Tom, you have to stick to your original agreement. Now, give us 60 days on this.Okay, Randall. Are you going to Potter’s? Better to get half than nothing. Tom! Randall! Now, Randall, wait! Now, wait! Now, listen.Now, listen to me. I beg of you not to do this thing. If Potter gets a hold of this building on loan, there’ll never be another decent house built in this town.He’s already got charge of the bank. He’s got the bus line. He got the department stores, and now he’s after us.Why? Well, it’s very simple. Because we’re cutting in on his business. That’s why.Because he wants to keep you living in his slums and paying the kind of rent he decides. Joe, you had one of those Potter houses, didn’t you? Well, have you forgotten? Have you forgotten what he charged you for that broken down shack? Here, Ed, you know, you remember last year when things weren’t going so well and you couldn’t make your payments? Well, you didn’t lose your house, did you? You think Potter would have let you keep it? Can’t you understand what’s happening here? Don’t you see what’s happening? Potter isn’t selling. Potter’s buying.And why? Because we’re panicky and he’s not. That’s the story, although it’s a wonderful life. Every time I listen to this, and I watch the movie a lot, uh, every time I hear it, it’s exactly it’s exactly the situation we have been in for many years, where you, you’re billionaires, you’re bankers, the deep state, as what used to be called, it’s not as popular now that President, uh, Trump is a deep stater himself, but they are manipulating us.They are manipulating the prices of stock. They’re manipulating the prices of oil. They’re manipulating the prices of gold and silver.But I’m telling you right now that according to the Bible, and I believe in the Bible, and I believe God, the real wealth is always land, property, and gold and silver. And as we panic and sell gold and get out of the gold, and that’s what, you watch CNBC, you watch, uh, Bloomberg, you watch Fox Business, every time gold plummets like it did, they get on and then all you can see is the price of gold. Now when gold was going up 20 and 30 percent a year, you had a hard time finding each day what the price of gold was.They didn’t even want to talk about gold. Why? Because they don’t make money selling you gold.They make money selling you stocks.So you watch these business programs and they’re in cahoots with the people robbing you of your hard-earned dollars by getting you to buy when you should be selling, and getting you to sell when you should be buying. And that’s what Jimmy Stewart in It’s a Wonderful Life was trying to say. Potter isn’t selling, Potter is buying.And I got news for you. The rich people who own silver and gold are going to let it fall to a very low price, maybe down to $3,800 again, and that’s still double of what it was a year ago. And then they’re going to buy and it’s going to go up high and people will get into the gold again when it’s five, six, $7,000, and they’re going to have missed the real profits.That’s what’s going on. Meanwhile, you got, um, all your, your, uh, business shows pushing Bitcoin. What would Bitcoin do? It’s dropped by 50% itself, but they’re still pushing Bitcoin.I’m telling you right now, if you think gold is over with, it’s no longer the currency, then you don’t believe that God knows what he’s doing. But I know God knows what he’s doing. Gold is precious to God.The streets of, uh, the streets of, uh, Jerusalem and the world to come is going to be paved in gold. That’s what it says in your Bible. Don’t panic.If you are, um, needing money and you bought gold cheap and you can still make $4,500 or $4,000 and you need some money, I would sell some gold. But I tell you right now, if you have available money and you put it in this stock market, you are going to lose a lot more money than you could ever lose with gold. And that’s what’s, that is what the people in the know know and they don’t want you to know it.And that’s why, like I said, it’s hard to get the price of gold. It’s hard to figure out what’s going on.And you’re going to see in a year or two’s time gold at $5,000, $6,000, $7,000 an ounce.It’s going to happen. It’s going to continue to grow. Gold in 1920 was $20 an ounce.Gold in 1933, when it was outlawed to own, was $35 an ounce. Today, it’s $4,500 an ounce. Now, if you had a good $20 bill in 1920 and you had that $20 bill today, unless it was one that was worth money to, like, collectors, it’s worth $20 today, but that ounce of gold is worth $4,500.What do you think is safer? What your government and what bankers tell you you should put your money in or what God tells you is true wealth? That’s what I have to say. It’s a little different program than I’ve been doing, but as you know, I believe the Bible has answers that just most news shows don’t want to talk about because God is the news. God is the greatest news headline maker of all time.At a moment’s notice, God can change the news. Six months ago, would you have believed that Donald Trump would have got us into this war which we are losing? I don’t care what all these military experts are saying. We are found out we are in the same shape Russia is with Ukraine and Russia was with Afghanistan in the 1980s when Ronald Reagan was arming the Afghanis to fight the Russians.Why do you think China is not attacking Taiwan? Right now, everybody in the know will tell you that it’s a perfect time for China to attack Taiwan. But I think China knows that Japan would get involved and they’re afraid of Japan. And they also know that the Taiwanese would also fight tooth and nail and they would find themselves in a quagmire and they would also find out the world wouldn’t want to buy from them anymore.Think about that. Don’t listen to the pundits on your business news channels. That’s fake news, just like all the other liberal fake news that you watch.That’s why concluding today, I’m gonna say go to theplaintruth.com. We try to find the news around the world you don’t get in one place anywhere else. And we’re trying to show you that there is a God. It’s the God of the Bible.It’s not some Hindu God. It’s not Allah. It’s not Muhammad or Islam.The Bible’s God, Jesus Christ and God the Father, are the true God. They have your answers for yourself. They are in the pages of your Bible.They published tomorrow’s headlines. Tomorrow’s headlines, by the way, can be pretty bad. But they also give you ways that you can find a way out.Number one, by the way, has nothing to do with gold or silver or any possessions. It has to do with believing in God, following in God, obeying God’s laws, obeying God in everything God says to do, and you will have eternal life. And you will have a life coming that’s a lot better than this life anyway.Follow God. Follow the Bible. Please come to theplaintruth.com every day and you will see the answers for you and your family are achievable.And when bad times come, many times God protects his people. We’re coming into the Passover season right now. And Passover is just less than 10 days away.And that’s a time when God passed over his people during the worst calamity ever to occur in the Egyptian kingdom. And not one of those calamities struck the Israelites. Well, the same thing is happening.This Passover season, get on with God and he’ll pass over you too. This is Bob Barney for the Plain Truth today, brought to you by theplaintruth.com. Thank you for listening. Bye-bye.s here