The Goldman strategists estimate that gold, hovering at a record peak around $3,340 an ounce, could climb at least another 11%—about $3,700.
By Paul R. La Monica – BARRONS.COM
The price of gold has soared 26% in 2025. (Chris McGrath/Getty Images)
With apologies to Neil Young, investors are still waiting to see what happens after the gold rush. The yellow metal keeps hitting record highs, and commodities strategists at Goldman Sachs keep forecasting even more upside.
The Goldman strategists estimate that gold, hovering at a record peak around $3,340 an ounce, could climb at least another 11%—about $3,700.
The strategists pointed out that the price spike—gold is up nearly 10% in the past month—is sustainable because it doesn’t appear to be driven mainly by speculative demand.
The strategists suggested some of the buying may have been done earlier this month by Western investors through exchange-traded funds, but those inflows have slowed.
Along those lines, State Street noted that its SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund surpassed $100 billion in intraday assets under management for the first time ever.
“While some of the initial demand appears to be retail-driven…retail flows appear to have moderated somewhat on the way up,” the Goldman strategists wrote, adding that the timing of the past week’s biggest moves “suggest the bulk of the rally was driven by Asian official sector buying.”
In other words, central bank purchases.
There has been a lot of talk in the past few weeks about how China and other global central banks may be moving away from the U.S. dollar, including dollar-denominated U.S. Treasury bonds, and shifting assets to gold as a response to the Trump tariffs.
The U.S. dollar has noticeably weakened as of late, while gold keeps rallying. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of other major global currencies such as the euro and yen, is down 4% in the past month and more than 8% this year. Gold has soared 26% since Jan. 1.
Gold is seen as a haven in a volatile market: Stocks have tumbled, bond yields have swung wildly, and the dollar has weakened.
“The price of gold is largely independent of other asset classes, and it has also traditionally been used as a refuge against weakness in the dollar. It can also serve as a hedge against inflation and market volatility,” said Morningstar portfolio strategist Amy Arnott in a report.
Gold miners’ stocks have rallied along with the precious metal as well. Newmont is up 47% this year, making it the second-best performer in the S&P 500, while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF has surged 50%.
Still, some argue that the miners may have even more gains ahead.
“Gold miners remain mispriced despite an extremely favorable risk-reward profile,” said Bhawana Chhabra, a senior market strategist with Rosenberg Research, in a report Thursday.
To that end, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF now trades at about 15 times earnings estimates for 2025, below its five-year average of near 19 times. That is also a bigger-than-usual discount to the S&P 500, which is now valued at around 20 times earnings forecasts.
“Strong fundamentals layered on top of this extreme price discount only add to our conviction,” Chhabra added, noting that earnings estimates for gold miners for this year and 2026 have been on the upswing.
But Arnott worries that the epic run for gold could eventually slow.
“It’s better viewed as an insurance policy than as a core holding given its lackluster long-term returns,” she wrote.
So at the very least, investors should be cautious before diving Scrooge McDuck-style into the gold pool.