‘Incumbent senators are extremely difficult to defeat’
By 
The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. (Pixabay)
By Mary Lou Masters
Daily Caller News Foundation
Republicans appear to be in a strong position to take back control of the Senate in 2024, where they only need to flip two seats, with numerous vulnerable Democrats set to appear on the ballot amid a contentious presidential election.
West Virginia provides Senate Republicans with their best chance, as Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin decided not to seek reelection in the state that went for former President Donald Trump by nearly 40 points in 2020. Other pick-up opportunities are in red states like Montana and Ohio, as well as presidential battlegrounds like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.
“First, I do think we shouldn’t underestimate the power of incumbency. Senate incumbents are doing quite well these days and the best targets, even in red states, won’t be pushovers. They will have unlimited money,” Scott Jennings, a GOP strategist and veteran of numerous campaigns, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “That having been said, I think [West Virginia] is obviously gone for the Democrats, meaning at worst the Senate is 50-50. That puts pressure on Dems to hold all of these: Ohio, Montana, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Plus the Vice Presidency.” “That’s a great opening hand for the GOP in this cycle,” Jennings added.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, has been largely focused on the races in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, all of which Trump won in 2020. Additionally, the group is targeting five swing states that President Joe Biden won by 3 points or less — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.
Trump is currently leading in the RealClearPolitics average for a hypothetical rematch against Biden in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, while the two are tied in Wisconsin.