Ever
since 1945, the US has regarded itself as the leader of the “free
world”. But the Obama administration is facing an unexpected and
unwelcome development in global politics. Four of the biggest and most
strategically important democracies in the developing world – Brazil,
India, South Africa and Turkey – are increasingly at odds with American
foreign policy. Rather than siding with the US on the big international
issues, they are just as likely to line up with authoritarian powers
such as China and Iran.
The US has been slow to pick up on this
development, perhaps because it seems so surprising and unnatural. Most
Americans assume that fellow democracies will share their values and
opinions on international affairs. During the last presidential
election campaign, John McCain, the Republican candidate, called for
the formation of a global alliance of democracies to push back against
authoritarian powers. Some of President Barack Obama’s senior advisers
have also written enthusiastically about an international league of
democracies.
But the assumption that the world’s democracies
will naturally stick together is proving unfounded. The latest example
came during the Copenhagen climate summit.
On the last day of the talks, the Americans tried to fix up one-to-one
meetings between Mr Obama and the leaders of South Africa, Brazil and
India – but failed each time. The Indians even said that their prime
minister, Manmohan Singh, had already left for the airport.
So Mr Obama must have felt something of a chump when he arrived for a last-minute meeting
with Wen Jiabao, the Chinese prime minister, only to find him already
deep in negotiations with the leaders of none other than Brazil, South
Africa and India. Symbolically, the leaders had to squeeze up to make
space for the American president around the table.
There was
more than symbolism at work. In Copenhagen, Brazil, South Africa and
India decided that their status as developing nations was more
important than their status as democracies. Like the Chinese, they
argued that it is fundamentally unjust to cap the greenhouse gas emissions of poor countries
at a lower level than the emissions of the US or the European Union;
all the more so since the industrialised west is responsible for the
great bulk of the carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere.
Revealingly,
both Brazilian and Chinese leaders have made the same pointed joke –
likening the US to a rich man who, after gorging himself at a banquet,
then invites the neighbours in for coffee and asks them to split the
bill.
If climate change were an isolated example, it might be
dismissed as an important but anomalous issue that is almost designed
to split countries along rich-poor lines. But, in fact, if you look at
Brazil, South Africa, India and Turkey – the four most important
democracies in Latin America, Africa, Asia and the greater Middle East
– it is clear that none of them can be counted as a reliable ally of
the US, or of a broader “community of democracies”.
In the past
year, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil has cut a lucrative
oil deal with China, spoken warmly of Hugo Chávez, president of
Venezuela, and congratulated Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad on his “victory” in
the Iranian presidential election, while welcoming him on a state visit to Brazil.
During
a two-year stint on the United Nations Security Council from 2006, the
South Africans routinely joined China and Russia in blocking
resolutions on human rights and protecting authoritarian regimes such
as Zimbabwe, Uzbekistan and Iran.
Turkey, once regarded as a
crucial American ally in the cold war and then trumpeted as the only
example of a secular, pro-western, Muslim democracy, is also no longer
a reliable partner for the west. Ever since the US-led invasion of
Iraq, opinion polls there have shown very high levels of
anti-Americanism. The mildly Islamist AKP government has engaged with
America’s regional enemies – including Hamas, Hizbollah and Iran – and
alarmed the Americans by taking an increasingly hostile attitude to Israel.
India’s
leaders do seem to cherish the idea that they have a “special
relationship” with the US. But even the Indians regularly line up
against the Americans on a range of international issues, from climate
change to the Doha round of trade negotiations and the pursuit of
sanctions against Iran or Burma.
So what is going on? The answer
is that Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and India are all countries whose
identities as democracies are now being balanced – or even trumped – by
their identities as developing nations that are not part of the white,
rich, western world. All four countries have ruling parties that see
themselves as champions of social justice at home and a more equitable
global order overseas. Brazil’s Workers’ party, India’s Congress party,
Turkey’s AKP and South Africa’s African National Congress have all
adapted to globalisation – but they all retain traces of the old
suspicions of global capitalism and of the US.
Mr Obama is seen
as a huge improvement on George W. Bush – but he is still an American
president. As emerging global powers and developing nations, Brazil,
India, South Africa and Turkey may often feel they have more in common
with a rising China than with the democratic US.
gideon.rachman@ft.com
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