China Can’t Afford to Invade Taiwan. Here’s Why (Transcript)

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China Can’t Afford To Invade Taiwan. Here’s Why

World War III is pencilled in for 2027 – but it  could start tomorrow by accident. Maybe a fishing boat gets lost. Maybe a missile lands where  it shouldn’t. Or maybe someone decides they don’t like the way a map is drawn. The spark is  Taiwan – the island everyone forgot about until it became the world’s hottest flashpoint. Xi  Jinping wants his army ready to invade even if it blows up in his face. After all, when you’re  ‘restoring order,’ what’s a little global chaos? Today, we’re looking at why China can’t afford to  invade the little nation. And if you like these

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weekly videos, make sure to hit subscribe – before  my self-esteem sinks faster than the Dead Sea. Let’s start with the map. China once called itself  the “Middle Kingdom – center of civilization. And luckily, geography agreed. Its fertile heartland  was a rice factory, cranking out food and people. But that hack came with a catch. The paddies  were wide open to raiders galloping in from the Eurasian Steppe – that endless grass  highway stretching from Europe to Manchuria. Luckily, China had built-in armor. The Hindu Kush  Mountains blocked one flank, while its coastline

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acted as a 9,000 miles (14,500 kilometers)  of coastline aquatic bouncer. Can’t swim, can’t come in. So as long as the Steppe  was protected, China could sleep easy. But history flipped the script. The  steppe is quiet and that protective bouncer isn’t as juiced up and scary now. In 1949, China decided it looked good in red, and went communist, so Washington thought  up the Island Chain Strategy – three defensive lines strung across the Pacific like  tripwires. The first chain was the big one, stretching Japan to Indonesia, boxing in China’s  coast so tight it felt like a chokehold. But it

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only existed because the Communists didn’t  win the Civil War as cleanly as they wanted. Their enemies, the Nationalists, weren’t  wiped out. They dipped to Taiwan and the other islands around it. And like every good  start up, it needed a catchy name – rebranding itself as Republic of China. New territory,  snappy name and a new government – and today it’s a multi-party democracy overseeing a vibrant  economy. To anyone looking in, it walks, talks, and acts like a country. At least that’s the idea. Very few countries officially recognize Taiwan,

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and it’s locked out of groups like the UN. In  public, everyone nods along that it’s part of Communist China. But behind closed doors, it’s  all winks and handshakes – quiet trade deals, backchannel ties, and embassy-sized  ‘not-an-embassies.’ That balancing act matters, because if Beijing moves in, it  won’t look like ‘China reclaiming China.’ It’ll look like a straight-up invasion  – and the world’s promised to hit back. It’s messy. And that’s the point. Beijing likes  it messy. Taiwan’s self-rule is that China can’t

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stop creeping on, scrolling their socials  at 3 a.m. And yeah…we’ve all been there. China may be the world’s second-richest  country today, but in 1949 it was flat on its back. This was a nation that once  ruled as the globe’s richest empire, reduced to such a sideshow that its civil war  – with millions dead – barely raised an eyebrow abroad. Beijing calls that stretch the ‘Century  of Humiliation,’ – a hundred years of getting wedgied by foreign powers. However the Communist  Party swears that all ended back in 1949 – sure.

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Taiwan still looms just off the coast – a reminder  of Beijing’s unfinished business. The Communist Party has tried to seize it before, and every  time the U.S. shoved them back. To Washington, it was containment. For Beijing, it was salt  in the wound- a reminder that even after 1949, foreigners could still tell  China “no” in its own backyard. But the people of Taiwan don’t see it that  way. To them, they’re not Chinese – they’re Taiwanese. And they want to keep it that way.  63.4% consider themselves purely Taiwanese.

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Just 2% claim they’re Chinese. The rest shrug  and say ‘Why are you asking me?’ Only 7% said yes to unification with the People’s Republic of  China – about as popular as pineapple on pizza. Taiwan’s bond with the Mainland has faded. They  won’t declare independence – not out of loyalty, but out of fear of Beijing’s wrath. It’s been  this way for decades, but nothing stays frozen forever. China hasn’t given up – and by 2027, it  has far more toys to play with. And like a grumpy toddler, Beijing has no interest in sharing. If Beijing wants someone to blame for the mess

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in the Taiwan Strait, it can start by looking at  the portraits of Mao on the wall. He promised the glory of communism – what he delivered was  more deadly to China than the entire Century of Humiliation. 45 million people died in the  Great Leap Forward. Millions more died in Mao’s Cultural Revolution. No one really knows how many.  By the time he finally stopped killing others and got around to dying himself in 1976, China was  a wreck. Once the world’s richest empire, it had sunk to one of the poorest – its economy just 2%  the size of the United States. It was ten times

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smaller even than Brazil’s. It was hardly the  kind of power that could pull off an amphibious invasion against an island backed by the West. Things only started to change when Mao finally gave up the ghost. The Party kept praising  him in public – but behind the curtain, he was that uncle who never gets invited to  family reunions.Mao’s successors realized communism wasn’t working – and getting rich  looked a lot more fun. So they opened the doors to foreign trade, and the money came pouring  in. By the time Xi Jinping took over in 2012,

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China’s economy was growing by an average of 6% a  year and had climbed to number two in the world. And then China started to flex. It spent a lot  of money on weapons. Thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles. Modern aircraft like the  stealthy Chengdu J-20 and the Shenyang J-35. New ships included three aircraft carriers  with a fourth on the way. China now has the world’s largest navy, with 405 units in its  active naval inventory. And they’re not done yet. Two brand new nuclear submarine models are  coming soon. And that’s just the highlight reel.

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China’s military buildup is happening at breakneck  speed. This isn’t a force built to guard the homeland – it’s built to throw weight around.  When U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, Beijing lost it. From August 4th and 10th,  China fired off live drills and even rehearsed a blockade. The message was crystal clear. China’s  not the same military America stared down in past Taiwan Strait Crises. Two carrier groups  showing up won’t make Beijing blink anymore. That’s exactly what Washington did during the  Third Taiwan Strait Crisis between 1995 and

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1996. Taiwan was in transition. In a sign of  its maturity as an independent country in all but name, it was moving away from the dictatorship  that Chiang Kai-shek created and holding its first democratic presidential election. And China  responded like any level-headed nation. They launched a bunch of missiles. America sent in  the ships. China backed down. Americans forgot. But China didn’t… and today, the missiles  coming from the mainland are deadlier. A breakneck economic revival and a swelling  military bring new temptations. Get money,

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you want to spend it. Spend it on  weapons, you start wanting to use them. Chinese nationalism isn’t just rising – it’s  everywhere. Companies stopped pretending to be ‘local’ abroad and doubled down  on being loudly, proudly Chinese. Patriotic movies like the Wolf Warrior franchise  and The Battle at Lake Cangjin have been smash hits at the Chinese box office raking in billions.  Meanwhile Wolf Warrior-style diplomats do the same act on the world stage, picking fights with  whoever listens. And back in the classroom,

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Beijing’s even rolling out masculinity  training to toughing up boys under a policy called “Proposal to Prevent the Feminisation of  Male Adolescents.” Next thing you know, they’ll be handing out Andrew Tate podcasts as homework. China today carries itself with a swagger – just like 1980s America with its larger-than-life  action heroes and sense of renewed confidence. But there is a difference. All that patriotic  fervor points in one direction – an island just 87 miles 87 miles (140 kilometers) off the  coast. The one Mao could never take. The last

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reminder of the Century of Humiliation  at the hands of Japan and the West. Between late 2020 and early 2021, China ran a  rare poll: What should be done about Taiwan? And our survey said… 55% of the people  would support a full-scale war to take over the island. 33% opposed the idea. The  rest said they weren’t sure – maybe because they could already imagine what would happen  to them, and their kids, if it all went wrong. Public opinion doesn’t really matter in an  authoritarian dictatorship like China. But

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this probably brought a smile to Xi’s face.  Chinese nationalism is one of the pillars of Xi’s rule. With so much history and political  capital tied to Taiwan, backing off would mean a major loss of face for both Xi and the  Party – especially now, with so much to gain. The Taiwan Strait isn’t just a strip of water  – it’s one of the world’s busiest trade routes. In 2022 alone, $1.4 trillion worth of Chinese  exports squeezed through this narrow channel. And it’s not just China riding the lane. According  to the U.S. Naval Institute, nearly half of the

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world’s container ships passed through the Strait  that year. Think of it as the Panama Canal on steroids – except this one sits between two rivals  staring menacingly at each other across the water. The status quo has held for decades, but it’s  an unsteady truce balanced on a shipping lane. Now China’s close to having both the gear and the  public backing to get moving. And Taiwan knows it – so it’s making its own plays. The U.S. may have  cut official ties after Beijing opened up, but under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, Washington  still keeps a ‘roommate who’s not on the lease’

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presence on the island. More importantly, it  keeps the weapons flowing. By mid-2025, weapon sales had hit $2.2 billion – basically turning  Taiwan into the guy in Grand Theft Auto who walks around strapped with every weapon in the game. Some items on Taiwan’s recent armageddon shopping list include 108 M1A2 Abrams tanks, 66 F-16V  fighter jets, 29 HIMARS rocket artillery systems, and 100 Harpoon anti-ship missile systems. They’re  all a part of Taiwan’s porcupine strategy. The island’s goal is to make an amphibious assault  so costly and bloody that Beijing takes one look

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and nopes out. And just to flex even more, it’s  also rolling out its own homegrown missiles. The Ching Tien hypersonic cruise missile can hit  Beijing or just about any other city on the Mainland from 750 to just over 1,200 miles  (1,207 to 1,931 kilometers) away. And the public’s not sitting on the sidelines either.  Nearly three-quarters of Taiwanese say they’d fight if Beijing made a move. Civilians  are signing up for training, ready to turn themselves into live ammo if it comes to that. Taiwan may be brave, but it knows the porcupine

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strategy only buys time. Just look at Ukraine –  Putin’s burned through more than a million men for a few miles of dirt, and he’s still at it. To  him, Ukraine isn’t land, it’s destiny. A piece of “lost Russia” he’s willing to bleed forever for  – well, willing for everyone else to bleed for. Xi’s feelings about Taiwan are similar.  That’s why the two get along – they read from the same script. Nation-states with borders  and sovereignty? Just Western red tape. To them, the world is split into civilizations – tied by  blood, language, and history. And in that story,

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Taiwan isn’t independent. It’s a chapter  China insists still belongs in its book. If you’ve got the patience to sit through Xi  Jinping’s speeches, you’ll hear him talk about the “China Dream,” or “the Great Rejuvenation  of the Chinese Nation.” At the top of that wish list? Taiwan. And there’s a deadline,  2049 – the centennial of the PRC. By then, Xi wants the box checked. But if he’s  serious, he can’t wait that long. It’s because of grey hair – literally. China is  aging fast. By the time Xi hopes to “rejuvenate”

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the nation, the median age will be nearly  52 – closer to Japan than to the U.S. It’s hard to wage war when the army’s shrinking,  the hospitals are packed, and the budget’s being eaten alive by retirement checks. Now you see why Xi is so dead set on being ready two years from now. There’s  no escaping it. If he’s going to do it, Xi has to do it soon – realistically within the  next ten years. If Xi – or his successor – waits too long, the moment’s gone. This is China’s  high-water mark, fueled by its boom years and

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a still-massive population. Delay, and the tide  goes out – leaving Beijing weaker, older, and past its best chance to rewrite the map by force. But even if Beijing gives the green light, victory’s no sure thing. It would be the biggest  gamble the Communist Party has ever rolled. Amphibious invasions are the riskiest play in  war. Even with surprise, they’re a nightmare – and Xi wouldn’t have the element of surprise.  The buildup would be visible months ahead, just like Putin’s fake drills before  Ukraine. Kyiv saw it coming, dug in,

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and wrecked Moscow’s blitzkrieg. Now it’s three  and a half years and a million bodies later. And Putin had it easy – he didn’t need to haul  his army across a stretch of water first. Sanctions on China would be locked and loaded  before the first boats even left port. But sanctioning China isn’t sanctioning Russia.  If the U.S. and its allies pull the trigger, they’d better be prepared for a lot of  pain – because it’s coming their way too. China’s economy clocks in at $17.8 trillion –  about 17% of the world’s GDP. Ever since Deng

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opened up the doors, it’s turned into the planet’s  workshop. China’s buried deep in global supply chains – and cutting it loose won’t be clean. We  already got a taste of that during the pandemic, when Beijing hinted it could cut off medical  supplies if countries asked the wrong questions. And it’s not just masks and gloves. Pretty  much everything runs through China. Eight out of ten iPhones are built there. Android user?  Don’t celebrate yet. Samsung bailed in 2019, but your phone, your TV, your laptop –  they all rely on the things China controls.

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Put it all together – China’s massive  economy, its role as the world’s factory, and its grip on global tech – and the  bigger picture comes into focus At the center of it all are rare earths- 17 metallic  elements the modern life can’t run without. The name’s a little misleading, though… rare  earths aren’t that rare. But guess who’s sitting on the stash? In 2023, China churned out about  70% of the world’s rare earths – and handled 90% of the processing on top of that. The Atlantic Council estimates that

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sanctions on Chinese banks—like the  ones slapped on Russia – would rip $3 trillion out of the global economy. That’s the  size of the entire U.K. economy, gone overnight. And that’s not the half of it. China’s a  trade giant, but Taiwan runs the chip game. It makes 55% of the world’s semiconductors  and 92% of the cutting-edge ones. That adds up to 35% of the world’s cars and 70% of its  smartphones – rolling off Taiwan’s production lines in one way or another. And it doesn’t stop  there. Those chips power your fridge, your TV,

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even your washing machine. Take Taiwan  out of the picture and suddenly you’re hand-washing your sweaty gym clothes in the sink. The U.S. and its allies are scrambling to shore up supply chains, but there’s only so much  they can do. Taiwan insists on keeping most chip production at home – not just for profit,  but to guarantee America has skin in the game. Beijing hopes that won’t hold if it invades.  Washington doesn’t officially recognize Taipei, and there’s no NATO in the  Pacific. But one thing’s certain,

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sanctions would hit like a hammer. Sanctions would crush China first. A RAND study back in 2016 estimated that a year-long war  in East Asia could chop 25–35% off China’s GDP. And the U.S. wouldn’t escape either – down 5–10%. And that was before the AI boom. Since then, America’s pulled chunks of its supply chain out  of China, but it’s also handcuffed itself to advanced chips. Beijing’s heading down the same  road, which means it’s just as exposed. Still, maybe China’s gambling the U.S. won’t put boots  on the ground – just bankers with sanctions.

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Officially, the U.S. plays coy with Taiwan  under its policy of ‘strategic ambiguity.’ It won’t say if it would defend the island…  or not. Even Ukraine had more of a promise with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum,  when it gave up nukes for security guarantees. And we all know how that story ended. So if China invaded, it would have to get the job done quickly, and there’s a chance it might.  Although the Taiwan Strait makes that tricky, China also has a geographical advantage. The United States military is spread all around

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the world. China’s military – it’s localized.  It can throw everything it has at Taiwan. And it didn’t build that mountain of ships and missiles  for show. The closer you get to China, the greater the number and accuracy of the missiles. Every  U.S. base in the Western Pacific is within range. Even Guam – nearly 3,000 miles (4,828 km) away  – is a bullseye. Missile defenses would swat some down, but some would get through. What geography gives with one hand, it takes with the other. Washington knows  the missile threat – and it has plans to

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make China pay in a longer war. Xi thought he had a fix. Enter the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).  It was a trillion-dollar gamble that’s aged like spoiled milk. The idea was simple – buy  influence by pouring money into infrastructure in key countries, and in the process, build  alternate trade routes. The crown jewel was the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a  shortcut around China’s weak spots. On paper, ships from the Persian Gulf could unload  in Pakistan, then roll straight into China

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by road and rail. Look at it on a map and  you’ll see why. It’s the Silk Road reborn. Except it never happened. The old routes from  the 1400s are still the ones that matter, and Beijing’s trillion-dollar shortcut went  nowhere. Which leaves China boxed in behind chokepoints the U.S. Navy can camp on – the Miyako  Strait, the Luzon Strait by the Philippines and Taiwan, and the Strait of Malacca. At its  narrowest? Only 24 miles (38 kilometers). That’s a nightmare for the world’s hungriest  energy user. China burns a quarter of global

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energy and 15% of the world’s crude. Its own  reserves? A kiddie pool when it needs an Olympic stadium. Since 1993, it’s had to import the rest  – and 80% of that oil squeezes through Malacca. And here’s where Taiwan comes in. It locks down  the first island chain. Whoever controls Taiwan decides if China’s navy stays bottled up on  its coast – or breaks free into the Pacific. And it’s not just oil. Two-thirds of all Chinese  trade sails through the same narrow gap. The U.S. Navy knows it. If Beijing ever sent ships  toward Taiwan, American carriers wouldn’t just

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head there. Some would sit at Malacca instead,  with their hand around China’s economic throat. China’s medium-range missiles could hit U.S.  ships from here, but the further out you go, the weaker that umbrella gets. And America’s  got an ace up its sleeve – one China’s missiles can’t swat so easily. Surface ships and bases  might be sitting ducks, but submarines are a whole different game of hide-and-seek. The United States had 64 submarines in its fleet last year. China wasn’t far behind,  with 61. But numbers aren’t everything. The

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U.S. Navy runs nuclear subs, built to stay out  for months and dive deep. Admiral Samuel Paparo, then head of the Pacific Fleet, bragged  that America’s subs are a full generation ahead of China’s. He wasn’t exaggerating. China’s got 48 diesel-electric subs – nice and quiet on battery, until they have to surface  and recharge. When those diesel engines kick in, it’s basically a car horn underwater. Even  China’s nuclear subs, the Type 093s and 094s, are louder than America’s. The newer 095s and  096s? Still on the drawing board until around

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2030, and cranking them out at scale will  take time – time Beijing might not have. So, what if China invaded Taiwan? U.S.  subs would be waiting at the chokepoints. China’s economy would start to suffocate  if the fight dragged on. And those subs could even take shots at the mainland. And if  Beijing hit U.S. bases in the region? Well, torpedoes have a way of returning the favor. What wouldn’t happen is a clean, one-on-one fight. The U.S. could bring in far more firepower  than China bargained for. And pretty soon,

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it wouldn’t just be America. China’s  neighbors – most of whom it’s managed to annoy – would be looking for payback too. Seventeen countries have territorial disputes with Beijing. The biggest grude match? Japan. Almost  everyone in Japan lives on its five main islands, but further south are a few lonely rocks  called the Senkaku Islands. Or Diaoyu, if you ask China. Nobody lives there, but in 1969  the UN discovered oil and gas nearby, and suddenly China ‘remembered’ it had owned them since the  14th century. Funny how history works when oil’s

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involved. And honestly? That claim makes more  sense than Beijing’s fairy tale about ancient settlers on the Spratlys. More on that later. Lately, China’s turned up the heat around the Senkakus. In January 2021, it passed  a new law giving its Coast Guard the green light to use force on foreign vessels  trespassing in ‘Chinese waters.’ And – big surprise – Beijing’s definition of ‘its  waters’ was about as broad as it could get. The law spells it out. Chinese jurisdiction  covers internal waters, territorial seas,

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the contiguous zone, the EEZ, the waters above  its continental shelf – and the wonderfully vague catch-all, ‘other waters.’ You can  guess what ‘other waters’ means for Japan. China was already poking at the Senkakus,  testing Japan’s limits. This law turned those jabs into a giant flashing warning sign. But more importantly, Japan can’t turn its back on Taiwan – its lifeline depends on it.  And 20% of its total trade goes through the South China Sea – which China is militarizing.  The Taiwan Strait carries 25% of its exports,

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32% of its imports, and 90% of its energy imports. That’s why, shortly before his assassination, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe warned that  a Taiwanese emergency would also be a Japanese one. He wasn’t exaggerating – if China takes  Taiwan, Japan’s very existence is on the line. Abe’s murder didn’t knock Japan off course  – it sped things up. He laid the groundwork for a stronger military, and his successors hit  the gas. For the first time since World War II, Japan’s arming for offense, buying missiles  that can hit targets far beyond its shores.

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Then in December 2022, Tokyo made it  official. Defense spending will hit 2% of GDP by 2027. That date wasn’t random – it  was aimed squarely at Xi’s invasion timeline. There are also around 54,000 American troops  in Japan, more than anywhere else in the world. Even if Tokyo wanted to sit out a Taiwan  fight, geography won’t let it. Those bases make Japan part of the battlefield from day one. South Korea hosts 25,000 American troops. Seoul may talk less about Taiwan than Tokyo, but  it’s just as locked into the regional balance.

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And there’s the bigger problem… trade. Geography  traps South Korea in the same choke points. 90% of its maritime trade runs through the South China  Sea, and the Taiwan Strait alone carries 30% of its imports and nearly a quarter of its exports. South Korea’s tried to walk a tightrope under Xi’s China- keeping its security tied to  Washington while cashing in on business with Beijing. In 2024, President Lee Jae Myung  even said Seoul should avoid picking sides and just say ‘thank you’ to both China and Taiwan. But gratitude doesn’t stop missiles. Once the

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shooting starts and trade routes narrow, South  Korea doesn’t get to stay neutral. Security and survival would drag it into the war. Seoul can pretend neutrality works because geography has kept it sheltered from  China’s roughest moves. On August 11th, 2025, a Chinese Coast Guard cutter and a PLA  Navy ship managed to crash into each other. They were nowhere near China, though. They were  in the South China Sea, and Filipino Coast Guard personnel captured the footage. Manila  was quick to blame Beijing for the chaos,

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and it’s been pretty chaotic in this patch of the  sea. In a part of the sea already crowded with warships and coast guard vessels from half a dozen  nations, chaos is basically the default setting. China lays claim to almost the entire South  China Sea with its infamous Nine-Dash Line. The Philippines dragged it to court in  The Hague in 2016 – and won. Judges tossed China’s claims out as illegal. That didn’t stop  Beijing. Xi was pretty much ‘try and stop me.’ China’s feud with the Philippines only got  nastier from there. Ship confrontations have

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spiked in recent years. The two Chinese vessels  colliding was just comic relief – usually it’s Filipino ships that get crushed. If they’re not  being rammed, they’re being blasted by Chinese water cannons, leaving coast guard crews and  fishermen soaked, battered, and humiliated. The Philippines has done the only thing it can –  lean harder on its old ally, the United States. U.S. bases once sprawled across the country,  then shrank after the Cold War. But China’s island-building brought them back. Now there  are nine American bases on Philippine soil.

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Look at where the bases are. Five sit in the  north, practically pointing like loaded pistols at the Taiwan Strait. Two more – Palawan and  Antonio Bautista Air Base – face the Spratlys, perfect platforms to choke off China’s shipping  lanes. Geography has made the Philippines a tripwire, and Washington’s set it tight. The Philippines isn’t just hosting bases – it’s bulking up too. Its military buildup  is aimed squarely at China’s expansion, and the training has been cranked up to 11. In  May and June 2025, Filipino troops drilled side by

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side with Americans, Japanese, South Koreans, and  even the British.What were they doing? One of the tasks involved testing the NMESIS ship-killing  missile launcher. Where were they? The Batanes Islands. The northernmost, Mavulis, sits just 88  miles (142 kilometers) from Taiwan. That’s closer than New York is to Philadelphia – practically  next-door neighbors in strategic terms. The Philippines is building a port here too. Once it’s  finished, it’ll be a perfect launchpad to squeeze China’s trade. if Beijing pushes harder. So now the geographical picture is coming

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together. If China moved on Taiwan and dragged in  the U.S. and its allies, it wouldn’t just face the island’s defenders. It would be squeezed on two  fronts closing in like a vise. Add a blockade at the Strait of Malacca, with Australia leaning  in, and Beijing would feel the pressure. Even with all its new ships and missiles, it’s playing a  dangerous game – one with a high chance of losing. And when the odds look that bad? That’s when  the desperate, dangerous moves come into play. What about nukes, you ask? On paper, China promises no first

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use of nukes. Sounds reassuring – until you dig  deeper. Buried in an obscure document called The Science of Second Artillery Operations is the fine  print – the scenarios where Beijing lowers the nuclear bar. And once you read it, that ‘no first  use’ pledge starts to look more like a loophole. China’s playbook says nukes come into the picture  if a nuclear-armed superpower starts pounding its strategic targets and Beijing has no way  to fight back. That’s not code for anyone else – that’s code for the United States. But this document points to red lines like

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strikes on the Mainland, its infrastructure, or  its cities. Hitting Chinese military targets at sea wouldn’t count. Which means if  the fight stays limited to Taiwan, there’s a real chance it doesn’t go nuclear. But  cross that line and the world starts glowing. A welcome sigh of relief, sure – but it’s short  lived. We’ve done the sanctions math. Now let’s do the war math – what’s the final number? A Bloomberg analysis found that a war for Taiwan would set the world back by $10 trillion. Only the  United States and China have bigger economies than

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that. It’s 10% of the entire global economy. So why would China risk it all? Historical claims and economic gain don’t explain a  gamble this big. China’s rich again – why rock the boat? Is a century-old civil  war grudge really worth the bill? Taiwan sits in the middle of the First  Island Chain – the ultimate prize. Right now, China’s wealth is chained to foreign cooperation,  bottled up by chokepoints it doesn’t control. Take Taiwan, and that chain breaks. Ports like Suao and Hualien might be

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rubble after a fight, but once rebuilt they’d hand  Beijing a gateway straight into the Pacific. With Taiwan in its grip, China wouldn’t just move ships  – it could call the shots. The Strait, the South China Sea, the trade lifelines of Japan, South  Korea, and the Philippines – all under Beijing’s thumb. This wouldn’t just tilt the balance. It  would rewrite the map… with China at the center. What’s China willing to gamble for  that payoff? We’re about to see. Thanks for joining me today! I hope you  enjoyed the video, and if you want to see