‘Any spark could trigger a full-scale uprising – and these resistance networks are prepared to channel protest into full-scale revolution’
By Hamid Enaya
Although “Nowruz,” the Iranian New Year that began on the first day of spring, March 21, supposedly marks a moment of renewal and reflection, this year it marks something far more consequential: the unraveling of the brutal theocratic Tehran regime’s decades-long strategy for survival.
In his New Year’s address, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei drew a telling parallel between the year 1403 in the Iranian calendar (2024-2025) and the year 1981 (1360), stating:
“The year 1403 was full of turmoil … like the challenges we faced in 1360 (1981) – difficult and painful time for us.”
In 1981, facing mass protests and the fragility of its newly established rule, the new regime of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini responded with brute force – opening fire on peaceful demonstrators and executing thousands of political prisoners. That year marked a turning point that allowed the Islamic Republic to violently consolidate power, even though – just hours after newly elected U.S. President Ronald Reagan gave his inaugural address on Jan. 21, 1981– Iran released the 53 American hostages it had held captive for 444 days.
So in his reference to 1981, Iran’s current leader, Khamenei, is signaling his regime’s deep anxiety that history may soon repeat itself – but with a different outcome.
3-pillar strategy in ruins
Following the Iran-Iraq War of 1980, the Iranian regime anchored its long-term survival strategy on the creation of three deterrent pillars: