William Dixon and Maksym Beznosiuk – RUSI.org
2025 offered the most generous potential off-ramp for Vladimir Putin. He rejected it.
The Kremlin’s strategic wager was clear: that an incoming Trump administration would force a peace deal on Kyiv and Europe’s capitals, locking in Russia’s territorial gains and fracturing Western unity before Moscow’s own clock ran out. And if it didn’t, the US would withdraw support. That strategy has stalled. Instead of softening, Ukrainian and European positions have hardened and held their red-lines. This year’s proposals did not divide; they solidified. Even the release of the Trump National Security Strategy with its polarising rhetoric outlined US commitment to NATO and Ukraine via the Hague 5% spending pledge – ultimately hardening the collective defence investments and resolve of the allies Putin hoped to fracture.
Since retreating from Kyiv in April 2022, Russia has now failed in four of its five strategic objectives: political subjugation, economic sustainability, regime stability and international standing. Only in territorial control does it hold a pyrrhic advantage. But a declining power is often more dangerous than a rising one. Facing an economic spiral and depleted conventional forces, Vladimir Putin is entering a window of maximum danger. We must prepare not for a resurgent Russia but for a desperate one: 2026 will be the year of hybrid escalation. Escalation, which the UK’s Foreign Secretary, in December 2025, on the 100th anniversary of Locarno, boldly stated was already ‘flagrantly visible’.
What Does Putin Want in 2026? A Three-Pillar Offensive
The trap Putin has now created for himself is psychological: a regime that justified its authoritarian model by promising to restore Russian greatness cannot acknowledge strategic defeat without risking political collapse. Shaped by his KGB culture and witness to Soviet demise, any peace deal that can be perceived other than complete ‘victory’ – is no longer a policy option available to him. It would delegitimise the entire regime. Therefore, escalation becomes not a choice but a necessity.
While Russia’s true fiscal state remains classified, it is undoubtedly bleak
Russia must demonstrate to its domestic audience and to the West that it retains the initiative and remains a great power. Next year, it will manifest across three specific hybrid warfare pillars:
- Sabotage will target Europe’s expanding defence production infrastructure and Ukraine-bound supply chains. As continental ammunition factories ramp up and logistics networks become more visible, they become prime targets – like last year’s arms factor explosion in Cugir, Romania. Expect attacks designed to delay weapons deliveries, drive up security costs and force governments to divert resources from Ukraine support to domestic protection.
- Subversion, especially information warfare as seen in Moldova – will intensify dramatically during key European elections including Hungary, in early 2026 and the US Mid-Terms. Pro-Russian populist parties already top polls across major European capitals. Every percentage point and every political message amplified to their advantage offers Russia hope of weakening sanctions and Western political resolve.
- Coercion through conventional military demonstrations will escalate from sporadic to systematic. Expect increasingly aggressive airspace and naval violations – like this year’s 12 minute ‘reckless’ Gulf of Finland incident. Plus, nuclear rhetoric calibrated to create psychological pressure. The intended message: supporting Ukraine risks direct escalation with Russia, so perhaps restraint is wiser.