It was a bit of a surprise that Russia stormed into Ukraine because as a practical matter, it didn’t necessarily make a lot of sense. There was no casus belli or threat to Russia from Ukraine. Sure, Russia didn’t potentially want another NATO member shoved up against its border down the road and may have liked the idea of turning that nation into a puppet state, but there is no compelling reason for Russia to invade right now. That’s doubly so since Russia didn’t appear to be fully prepared for the invasion. Granted, you can’t necessarily take the news you hear at the beginning of a war at face value, but the general consensus from policy experts seems to be that the invasion isn’t off to a great start. Surprisingly, Ukraine still has planes in the air, some pretty embarrassing footage of captured Russian soldiers has leaked out, the West has stood surprisingly strong, there have been significant protests in Russia, Putin and company have faced damaging sanctions, and no major Ukrainian cities have been taken… yet. It is still entirely possible that Russia will pour more resources into Ukraine, quickly crush the Ukrainian military, and settle in for years of bloody guerilla fighting fed by massive arms shipments and aid from the West as the Russian economy bleeds out because of sanctions, but that seems like a Pyrrhic victory at best.
How all of that ultimately plays out remains to be seen, but the one thing that has been noticeable since the beginning of the invasion is that it seems to have focused people’s minds on more serious issues.
MORE
