Is a stock market crash happening this fall? (Transcript)

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   Is a stock market crash happening this fall?

Hi, Bob Burney with The Plain Truth Today, brought to you by theplaintruth.com. Today we’re going to go back to an economic show. We have been talking a lot lately about the Bible and God, and God is the creator of the tomorrow’s headlines. You can find them in the pages of your Bible, and it’s an important aspect of study that we do here on The Plain Truth, something that just does not normally happen when you watch regular news trying to describe what’s going on.

What I wanted to talk to you today is this incredible potential crash of the stock market that I am actually thinking, and I’m not a stock expert, but we are ourselves going to take our money out of our IRA stock market. I think we, I forgot which one we use, but we’re in the stock market right now with our IRA, and I’ve told my wife, I think it’s time that we move it into a money market. It’s better to only make 4 or 5 percent in a money market than to lose 20, 25, or even 30 percent in the stock market and take another 10 years to get it back.

I don’t have 10 years to get it back, and it’s just, I think, something that if you’re at a certain age you should think about doing. If you’re in maybe 35 or 45 years old and you don’t think it’s the time of the end yet, and if you do, maybe you should also follow the advice of an older person, but if you’re younger and you think you can ride out the crash and it’ll come back, go be it. But my opinion, if the market is looking very unstable, and to me it is, then I think that it is prudent to do something better with your money than to keep it into a fund that probably is going to devalue in the next 4 months, and that’s how short I think this will be, that will take away 25, 30, maybe 35 percent of what you’ve gained in the last 5 years, and that’s what this show is about today, the stock market.

Is it about to crash? And I’m going to play a person I play a lot in this program. It’s going to be in segments, but it’s about 10 minutes of listening along with this program, and it’s Ray Dalio, and he’s going to talk about a problem that he foresees coming that I think a lot of experts who have studied history of crashes, they have something in common, and the three things that they mainly have in common versus, I’m talking about the big crashes, the 29s, the 2008s, the original ones in the past, the things they have in common is this, they have an increasing portfolio of stocks goingway higher, commodities going way high, people are buying on binge moods, they are buying because they do not believe that the commodity or the stock or whatever they’re investing in can go down, and they buy mindlessly, and then what’s worse, they end up borrowing money to buy mindlessly because they think you can’t go wrong, I don’t care if I have an 8 percent on my loan, but I’m going to borrow money and I’m going to invest it back in the stock market, and the stock market’s raise in value of my stocks is going to pay for the loan. This happened, by the way, in 1929, and there was a disaster that resulted because of it, many people jumped off their buildings to their deaths, because when margins calls came, they didn’t have the money to pay back theirlenders, and they were instantly bankrupt overnight.

There are a lot of people that I’ve been listening to who have exactly done what I just said, they have actually borrowed on margin, and it’s something you can do. I have Robinhood, and that’s one of the ones I use to invest, and they’re constantly trying to get me to borrow money to buy stocks, and I think it’s a very foolish thing to do, but I think many, many Americans are doing it today, and the betting on Polymark and all of these things, number two thing happens, and you got to realize this in history, is when the crash comes, and people lose confidence, and they realize they were lied to, and that’s the big key, that people lose confidence in whatever they invested in, and the government they invested in, then number three happens, a total crash of confidence, and the stock market, and every market there is, everything but gold and silver,crashes to the bottom, depression happens, people out of work, and governments often collapse,then what follows is actually a world war. It’s happened in almost every single instance withinanother decade, and that’s a fear we have to consider, mainly because, remember, the Bible is talking about world wars to come, wars and rumors of wars.

It’s not something that God does not warn us about in advance. If you read your Bible, you’re going to see that the end times, and we are in the end times. How do I know we’re in the end times? I’m not saying it’s going to happen in your lifetime, my lifetime, or right away, but I know we’re in the end times because the Apostle John said he was living in the end times, and Paul agreed.

So if the end times started with the resurrection of Jesus Christ and the New Testament church began, then it’s a conclusion, it’s easy to make. We’re still living in the end time, and it’s going to last until Jesus Christ returns. But let’s listen to a first little brief summary by Ray Dalio about why he’s worried about this particular stock market.

I think we’re going to come into a period of greater disorder, as there’s a confluence between the monetary part, the domestic, social, and political part, where there’s irreconcilable differences, and the international world order part. I should bring in two other factors. One of them is acts of nature through history, and if you take, most people think about what’s happening to climate, it’s not a movement toward improvement, it’s a movement toward worsening, and then technology.

Well, I want to interrupt him right here, because I think climate change is a hoax. However, the climate is changing in certain areas of the world, and I look at it, it’s really changing a lot in the areas of the world which are lost Israel, and if you listen to this program, you understand who lost Israel is. Western Europe, England, and America, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.

And we are under a drought on the east coast of the United States that no farmer in their lifetime can remember one this bad. I’m looking at corn crops that’s supposed to be 15 to 20 feet high, and they’re five feet high. And I asked a farmer, it looks like sweet corn, what is it? And I think I told you about this on the Friday wrap-up, and he said, the drought.

The drought has stunted the corn, it’s erring out, but it’s going to be a lot smaller. We’re going to have probably a 25 or 30 percent less productive year in corn grain than we did just last year. This is a climate change thing, but my position is that climate change is coming to certain countries who are under God’s blessing or cursing.

We talk about Deuteronomy 28 and Leviticus 26. We always say go to Leviticus 26 or Deuteronomy 28 and see the penalty for Israel, and that’s the United States of America, and England, and Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Look at the penalty if you refuse to obey God’s Ten Commandments.

When you do, there is a reaper to pay, and that is what’s happening with these climate problems we’re having today. It hasn’t to do with nature and global warming due to man-made carbon. It has to do with God punishing this country and trying to get it back on track before he unleashes on this country, as he did back in the days of the kings and chronicles under the Judah and Israel kingdoms, when God finally gave up and allowed both kingdoms to go into captivity, which is, by the way, prophesied to happen to the United States.

Let’s continue. …an AI, and I think that we have to talk about technology and AI as it enters into this picture because it plays a role three ways. It can be a tremendous productivity-enhancing result that can help to mitigate maybe a number of the debt problems and so on and so forth.

Perhaps we can get into this. I don’t think it’s going to come across with that speed and so on because it can produce the incomes, let’s say, and the incomes can help debt service payments and the like. So I just want to say that’s one of the three effects of the AI.

The second effect of that AI, it is now creating enormous wealth gaps. Those who are the beneficiaries, we’re approaching who will be the first trillionaire. The wealth gap thing has increased at great amounts and so on, and it will replace a lot of jobs, and so that’s number two as a factor, right? So those gaps are an issue, however we deal with them.

They will have to be dealt with, and that’s going to become probably a political question, but that’s an issue. And then number three is the technologies themselves can be used for harm, a lot of power. It could be used by other countries.

It can be used by those who want to inflict harm. It could be used by those who want to steal money. It can be used for harm and how that balances, and we won’t know what it is like in the future because it’s to our human capacity to anticipate what it’ll be like in three to five years.

So I think that for all these forces, these five forces, I think over the next five years, it’ll be like going through a time warp. It’ll be huge changes over the next five years in all of these forces coming together, and at the other side of that, it’ll be almost unrecognizable. It’ll be very different,and it’ll be a period of great turbulence.

And then, okay, so what does one do? Knowing that one is not going to know what that’s going to be like, then my own approach to this, and I recommend this, is knowing how to balance positions. They’re divided about who has what money and who gets it, which is very much related to the deficit. I wrote my most recent book to explain how it works with 35 examples was called How Countries Go Broke, and I’ve been speaking to top levels of both the Democrat and Republican Party, and everybody agrees on those mechanics.

And then when I go down, I say, you’ve got to get to 3% of GDP deficit through some mix ofraising taxes, cutting spending, and controlling interest rates. That’s how you have to do itmechanically and so on. And they say, Ray, you don’t understand.

In order for us to be elected, to make at least one of two promises. I will not raise your taxes, and I will not cut your benefits. Okay, so what the country’s divided of is, you know, let’s say the multibillionaire class, and those who are struggling financially, the left and the right and populism and so on.

And that has a money component. So the deficits and the money part is a very big part of the social conflict part. The financial crisis will mean that the capacity to spend will be very limited.

In other words, you can’t afford a military expenses and social expenses and so on, so that you’ll be very constrained. And I want to again, talk about the military spending and the social spending. This is the problem that I really see what’s happening here with Trump 2.0. I have to admit Trump 1.0 himself, when I think he was a great president, by the way, did not worry enough about government spending, as maybe like a Ronald Reagan did or people with any brains in their headbecause government spending is the driver of the national debt, number one, and the driver ofinflation, number two, which is the cruelest tax that can happen to a person is inflation.

And don’t kid yourself. And when the government is spending money and with no accountability to in order to get elected in order to win people over to your side, what’s happening here, unbeknownst to most Americans maybe, is they are saddling their children and their grandchildren with a debt that is unrepayable. And there will be a day when the United States will not be able to pay off their debts.

That’s going to happen. It may happen in your lifetime. I guarantee you probably if you’re under 35 years old, it is going to happen in your lifetime.

Probably if you’re under 50 years old, there’s still a 75 percent it’s going to happen in your lifetime. And now for the last year or so, I’ve been thinking I’m 71 years old, it’s going to happen in my lifetime because our government is now almost $40 trillion in debt and they are still looking for a $1.5 trillion military budget to fight a war that nobody wants us in, to fight a war that we don’tseem to want to win and Vietnam-like, and to put ourselves deeper and deeper and deeper in debt. And the debt will soon become the biggest problem we have paying off because the interest on the debt will become so large, larger than any other government expenditure, it will become so large that the interest on a debt will be unpayable.

And when that happens, the government is going to default on treasury notes, on treasury bills, and on just loans in general. And that is going to start a forest fire of lack of confidence in the United States of America worldwide. And, you know, it might sound good to a president to declare a bankruptcy, but it’s going to cause a world war.

Hi, Bob Barney for The Plain Truth today. It’s brought to you by theplaintruth.com. We’re the place to go to to find out what’s happening today, what’s going to happen tomorrow, and it’s all found in the pages of your Bible. God is part of the news.

God knows what’s going to happen, and most news shows just don’t tell you what’s going to happen tomorrow based on what the Bible says. They try to be secular, and they try to make believe God doesn’t appear or exist even. And if they think he exists, it’s only in prayers between you and God, and it’s private, and God really doesn’t get involved in national affairs and tragedies and weather events.

No, that’s global warming. No, it’s not. It’s God Almighty, the God who became Jesus Christ, by the way, the Lord and God of the Old Testament, you can prove it, who predicted what the end times would be like, which we are living in.

Go to The Plain Truth every day and find out what’s happening and what you can do about it. Thank you. And I want to get back with this Ray Dalio show, but I want to just double down on this idea.

What happens after a crash? You can’t pay your debts. World War. People will go to war with us, and many people are going to die because of it.

I think you raised two questions, and I want to treat them separately, even though they’re related.The first is about the higher living standards and us being richer. That has been true through all history.

So all of these times before World War II, that has been true. And the big issue is how people deal with each other. If you take per capita income, any measures, life expectancy, any measures of well-being, and you do a chart from the 1400s, in the dark ages, it was relatively flat.

And so at every moment in time, we as a world, as a society, have been richer than before. Making your point, okay, that didn’t prevent World War II, didn’t prevent the debt problems, didn’t prevent any of those things, because the most important thing is how people deal with each other. Together, deal with those problems.

And because realistically, so what if we had 10% decline in our living standards as part of a healthy adjustment? That is the first thing. Doesn’t alleviate the debt problem, doesn’t alleviate the fighting for control. This is much more like the 30, okay, for a variety of reasons, having to do with the measures, if you were to say the severity of the debt, the severity of the internal conflict.

I mean, I lived through these. Our debt is worse off, and the United States’ dominance in the world order, and the conflict is worse off. So I would say that’s objectively the case.

I’m not trying to make a bad case, I’m just trying to be analytical, because my job is to bet correctly. The Japanese situation is two main things, very interesting. The Japanese debt is an internal debt.

In that particular case, the way it was dealt with is that the central bank printed a lot of money andbought the debt. Okay, that’s how they did it. And as a result of that, the Japanese yen declined.

And so they had a tremendous depreciation in the value of the wealth because of the depreciationin the value of the money and the debt. So yes, we can see something happening like that. Butone third of our debt is held by foreigners.

So that’s a different thing. And we as a country, you know, owe money. And if you think that that’s a good outcome, it’s like decline of the British Empire.

I think we can’t frame it as like in the beginning of what I objected to was, is the United States going to win or lose or any of that thing? I think we know what healthy is. There are only three things any country has to do in order to be healthy. And this is throughout history.

First, educate your children well, in terms of their capabilities, the quality of their ability to be productive, and their civility. Number two, have them come out to a country in which there’s order and that people work together to be productive, so that there’s broad based productivity and prosperity. And don’t get into a war, don’t get into a civil war, or don’t get into an international war.

That’s all you have to do. Then you can look at the fundamentals of that. Are we educating our children well, so that they can be productive and capable, and they’re civil with each other that we have a civil population? Do we have an environment where there is productivity and we can get along? I think we have terrible circumstances.

I live in Connecticut, and my wife helps kids trying to get through high school, the gaps in education, the gaps in these things, and civility, a real problem. And we’re going to go on to another thing here, because what I started out by saying, and I wanted Ray Dalio’s opinions here, because he believes we’re heading for a crash, and he gives you reasons in history why crashes of big magnitude happen, always followed by a world war, or a big major war. And I think he’s theguru on it, and he’s got books written on it, and he’s on a lot of shows, and he’s worth listening to.

But what’s going to happen this October, September, October, November? And that’s a question you need to answer if you have a 401k, an IRA, or money in the stock market. I’m going to finish here as a few quotes here from Andrew Ross Sorkin from CNBC, Squawk Box, Monday through Friday in the mornings on CNBC. And his book that he wrote about the 1929 crash and why it happened, and he is seeing, and this guy is no, you know, Johnny come lately thinking the sky is falling all the time.

He’s very a positive guy usually, but he’s seeing such similarities between 1929 and today that it scares him. And here’s a 60 minutes interview that he had, and I want you to hear what he has to say. The crazy part about this is, from 1928 to September of 1929, the stock market was up 90%.

When you say the stock market was way up, immediately I think of now. Are you scared? I’m anxious. I’m anxious that we are at prices that may not feel sustainable.

And what I don’t know is we are either living through some kind of remarkable boom, and part of that’s artificial intelligence and technology and all of that, or everything’s overpriced. Or we’re reliving. 1929.

There was so much anxiety. Sorkin has covered the markets for two decades. He joined the New York Times after college, soon founding the deal book newsletter covering finance.

He also co-hosts Squawk Box on CNBC, runs the deal book summit where he interviews the high and mighty. He co-created Billions, the TV show, wrote a bestseller about the 2008 crash, and now a book about 1929. We’re always being undone by bubbles.

There was the internet bubble in 2000, the housing in 2008. Are we in another bubble, an AI bubble or something like that? I think it’s hard to say we’re not in a bubble of some sort. The question is always when is the bubble going to pop? One symptom of a bubble is when the market goes up and up, but the underlying economy, the real economy, goes soft.

And that appears to be happening right now. I would argue to you that the economy is being propped up almost artificially by the artificial intelligence boom. There are hundreds of billions of dollars that are being invested today in artificial intelligence.

This is either a gold rush or a sugar rush. And we probably won’t know for a couple of years which one it is. We might find out by this September, October, if the AI bubble is going to bust.

And one of the problems happening right now, by the way, is China’s AI version of chat GPT is now surprisingly much better than America’s. And that has Wall Street really worrying. And if you’ve been paying attention, NASDAQ, where all the tech stocks are, has been really in decline for over three weeks.

And every time you hear an expert on CNBC or all these other Fox business, they keep saying, it doesn’t mean anything. Just keep investing. Keep giving me your money to invest for you because you can’t go wrong with this market.

Because they can’t lose money if you go up or down. They’re like a bookie. They make money if you make money, and they make just as much money if you lose your buck and never listen to an expert on these so-called business shows.

And what you’re seeing, in my opinion, is that 1928 ramp up to the 1929 with very overvaluedstocks and really, really overvalued AI stocks, which is eventually going to be a crash. It’s going to absolutely test the confidence of the American public and the public of the world, because the world has bought into this AI nonsense. And I don’t want to say AI is not good in its place, but I don’t believe the trillions of dollars being spent in AI right now is going to pan out in the short run.

And I do believe in the long run, it’s going to cause a market crash, a absolute panic around the world, conflict between nations leading to major war, maybe world war, and not good for America’s debt, not good for American citizens, especially those going to fight in these wars, and only good for those companies who specialize in making munitions and airplanes for war or boats for war, the military industrial complex. They’ll do well in any war, but the American people are going to suffer. And if you listen to the Bible, if you listen to Leviticus 26 and 28, you will see that America is going to be defeated by the enemy within us.

And we know the problems we have with illegal aliens. That is the enemy amongst us. I don’t necessarily agree with Donald Trump’s antics of trying to get these illegal aliens out of the country.

We should have went after the criminal ones first before we went after Hector at the Home Depot. But at the same time, the alien living amongst us, according to both Leviticus 26 and Deuteronomy 28, is going to be a catalyst of us being defeated by our enemy. And our enemy, by the way, is going to be a Holy Roman Empire coming out of Europe.

It’s not going to be Russia. It’s not going to be China. It’s not even going to be Japan, although Japan is going to be, in my opinion, allied with this Holy Roman Empire.

Just think of World War II all over again. And that is what’s in your future. But for the very short time, it does not hurt you.

That’s all I want to say in this program. It does not hurt you. If you, for a few months, you can call up your stockbroker or your investment counselor and say, I don’t like what’s going to happen.

I would like to put all of my 401k IRA or likewise kind of investment, Roth, whatever. I would like to put it in the money market. You’re going to have ridicule.

They’re going to try to talk you out of it because they don’t care if you really make money or not. They’re into the system and they’re always going to be into the system because that system is making them rich. But it does not hurt you to lose the market gain that you may lose.

If I am wrong and you pull out of the stock market and you get into a money market, instead of making 12, 15 or 18 percent in the next six months, you’re only going to make four or five percent. Well, you’re not losing and you can always go back in the stock market and try it again. But as long as things look bad, as long as gas prices are up, as long as food prices are up, as long as the average American is not happy with this government and the latest polls that I’ve seen, contrary to what these Republicans and these Trump backers try to say, these polls are not accurate or lies.

I don’t believe they are lies. I talked to a lot of people in the course of my business. Many and most of them voted for Donald Trump in the Republican Party.

And I would say the majority of the Americans who voted for Donald Trump are not happy with what they’re seeing and what’s coming out of this government and the swamp that’s gotten deeper and deeper and deeper and murkier and stinkier. And I think we are in for natural disasters, number one, and an economic disaster, number two, really quickly. If we get through it, I don’t know.

But like I said, I’m taking my money and putting it into a money market. That could go bust, too, by the way. But if that happens and the government collapses now, we’re all done for anyway.

We’ve got to just depend on God, because ultimately it is our God, our Lord and Savior, which is going to protect us or not during this crash. Put your confidence in Jesus Christ. Do not put your confidence in Robert Barney or any of these experts on TV.

Follow God and you will never go wrong in the long run. Until tomorrow, Bob Barney for The Plain Truth today. Thank you for listening.

We appreciate you. Bye-bye.