By Bob Barney, The Plain Truth
November 9, 2025
The wheels of commerce are grinding ever more slowly in America. While much of the focus has been on ticking interest-rates, consumer spending and inflation, one of the clearest signals of trouble in our economy is silently rolling along in the trucking lanes – particularly in the less-than-truckload (LTL) freight sector.
As I often explain during my podcasts, my wife and I own an automotive paint manufacturing company. In that role, we are heavily involved in the freight business. The raw materials we need to make our products are delivered to us from freight trucking companies, and the recession we are really in, as well as the high cost of diesel fuel, insurance and a crisis of finding qualified drivers has driven the industry into a severe depression, and it’s getting worse. Tomorrow morning, on The Plain Truth Today’s 7:11 AM short video will be about just this crisis, which is affecting wholesalers and manufacturers now, but will end up decimating the consumer in a few months.
For readers of The Plain Truth, let’s break this down: LTL carriers consolidate many small shipments from different shippers into one truck, then sort and re-route them through hubs before final delivery. That business model is particularly vulnerable when volumes drop – and drop they have.
The Data Doesn’t Lie
Recent freight-industry readings show a prolonged freight slump, not just a temporary dip. High-frequency freight data suggest the “goods economy” is in recession territory. For example, one leading LTL carrier reported tons per day in its LTL business down by 4.8 % in a recent quarter. Many smaller carriers are shutting down completely and it’s only getting worse in the Trump 2.0 economy which is favoring Wall Street, but not main street. In short: fewer shipments, lighter weights and fewer paying customers.
Why the LTL Sector is Feeling the Pain
Several factors converge to hammer this space. Weak demand due to the cost impacts on tariffs and the breaking of the supply chain, starting with covid, and exasperated with Trump’s tariffs. Consumer spending has shifted from goods to services. Manufacturing and construction, big generators of freight, are cooling and the future looks even worse.
The overcapacity and high fixed cost are crushing the industry. LTL networks are built on costly hubs, terminals, sort-centers and equipment. When volumes fall, cost per unit rises sharply. Tariffs and cost pressures, like Import tariffs and fees, rising input costs and regulatory burdens are eating at margins even as volumes remain weak. The pricing power that these truckers enjoyed during the first Trump years are eroding. Shippers, like ourselves at Tamco Paint are resisting paying more, as carriers strain to raise rates, yet cost inflation refuses to let up.
Implications for the Industry and for You
If the LTL sector continues its slide, the consequences ripple outward: slower supply chains, higher costs for goods, less reliable delivery service, and potential consolidation among carriers. Some carriers are already taking action such as shrinking networks, deferring equipment purchases, focusing on denser lanes, reducing service in low-density markets. For the shipper side, you’ll find fewer carriers willing to serve marginal lanes or small shipments unless you pay for efficiency / density.
A Biblical Perspective
As The Plain Truth readers know, we view economic and societal shifts through a spiritual lens. The Apostle Paul wrote: “For when the fullness of time was come, God sent forth his Son…” (Galatians 4:4) – and in the same way, the fullness of economic time is showing us signs of the end‐times warning words: “For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom…” (Matthew 24:7).
The freight collapse is not simply a business story – it is a portent of deeper structural change in the industrial economy of this nation.
As Isaiah tells us: “The land shocketh and is removed, the foundation thereof is unsteady.” (Isaiah 24:18)
When the trucking industry falters, the foundation of commerce shudders.
What to Watch For Next
Will LTL carriers raise minimum weights, impose volume thresholds, or abandon low-density lanes entirely? If so this means higher prices for you.
Will shippers push back hard? Trust me, we are!
The results are that the smaller LTL carriers will exit the field, forcing consolidation and perhaps higher rates for remaining players?
Conclusions
We are in more than just a soft patch in an economy that is turning around. The people on main street and in the LTL freight sector are in a severe recession, and it reflects real weakness in our goods economy. For those who listen, these changes are a wake-up call: When the backbone of commerce falters, the effects spread far beyond trucks and terminals.
Our message at The Plain Truth remains: Remember who holds the reins of nation, economy and destiny. The trucks carry the goods, but God controls the outcomes. Stay alert, stay prepared, and recognize that this is not simply a business cycle – it may be part of a larger unfolding.
Make sure to visit The Plain Truth Today podcast tomorrow morning!