By Bob Barney—The Plain Truth
Today on The Plain Truth Podcast, we have a video that informs our readers and viewers the Plain Truth about the tariffs that just isn’t be reported on. That is manufacturing job losses SINCE the tariffs started. Here is my input on the subject and please view today’s Podcast with the same title as this article-
In April 2025, the U.S. government implemented sweeping tariffs on imported goods—supposed to revive American manufacturing and bring jobs home.
Instead, manufacturing employment continued to contract.
According to multiple economic analyses, the U.S. manufacturing sector lost tens of thousands of jobs after tariffs were announced, even as overall employment data showed weak hiring. Labor Department figures indicate manufacturing employment declined approximately 37,000–59,000 jobs since April 2025, with durable-goods sectors bearing much of the losses.
Meanwhile, the broader job market barely grew. For all of 2025, the U.S. added just 584,000 jobs—the fewest since 2003 outside of recession years, and sharply down from more than 2 million jobs added in 2024.
How Tariffs Can Suppress Hiring Without Raising Prices—At First
Economists have noted a puzzling pattern in 2025:
- Consumer prices barely reflected tariff costs early on, despite higher duties on imports.
- Companies often absorbed these increased costs, using inventory buffers and pre-tariff contracts.
- This meant households didn’t see big price rises at the register—yet.
This aligns with economic research showing that when import prices rise due to tariff duties, firms initially delay passing those costs onto consumers by running down inventories or using long-dated supplier contracts. (Academic researchers show akin behavior from historical tariff shocks.)
But this delay creates a hidden pressure:
profit margins shrink first—before prices rise. When margins shrink, hiring and investment slow.
Tariffs and Manufacturing: Data On Output and Hiring
Even broader manufacturing indicators point to strains:
- The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI fell in late 2025, reflecting weak new orders and declining exports—suggesting reduced demand.
- Federal Reserve industrial production data showed only modest growth in late 2025, hinting factories were not ramping up output significantly.
These real-economy signals are consistent with firms cutting back hiring, rather than expanding. And hiring data shows it: manufacturers shed jobs even as healthcare and other sectors created them.
Tariffs Suppress Job Growth Before They Raise Prices
Here’s the key two-phase dynamic:
Phase 1: Job Effects First
- When tariffs hit, companies absorb costs.
- Employment slows or contracts.
- Output becomes less competitive.
- Workers feel the effects long before everyday inflation shows up.
You saw this in the data: manufacturing jobs fell while the overall labor market barely expanded, with the weakest job growth in years.
Phase 2: Prices Rise Later
Economic projections (e.g., Budget Lab forecasts) suggest that persistent tariff pressure will eventually show up as higher consumer prices, especially once inventory buffers are depleted and firms must pass on costs. Their models forecast:
- Lower GDP growth in 2025 and 2026
- Higher unemployment
- Reduced payroll employment of hundreds of thousands
- Higher price levels for certain commodities such as leather and apparel
by late 2025 and into 2026.
This means your shopping cart may stay stable for a while… but only until firms can no longer hide the tariff cost.
The 2002 Steel Tariff Parallel—and Why It Matters
In 2002, the U.S. imposed steel tariffs intended to protect steelmakers. Independent reviews later found that those tariffs ended up raising costs for downstream industries (like auto and appliance manufacturing), leading to more job losses outside steel than jobs saved in steel production itself. Historical analyses have linked tariff protection then with sustained employment losses in complementary sectors.
Today’s tariffs are broader in scope and hit far more industries—meaning the distortions are larger and more widespread.
What This Means for You in 2026
As tariff-induced costs eventually move through supply chains:
- Prices of certain goods (especially imports and product categories dependent on imported inputs) will rise noticeably.
- Wage growth is unlikely to keep pace with those price increases if labor markets remain weak.
- Households could see significant increases in annual costs once buffers are exhausted—estimates in some models suggest cost pressures could amount to the equivalent of thousands of dollars per household.
At the same time, slower job growth means fewer opportunities and weaker bargaining power for workers, especially in sectors already under stress.
The Plain Truth
Tariffs in 2025 did not immediately drive up prices, but they did contribute to job losses and slowed hiring.
That’s not what policymakers promised.
And if tariffs remain or expand into 2026, consumers will begin paying more directly at the checkout—after job losses have already hit.
That sequence—jobs bleeding first, prices rising later—is what makes today’s trade policy so consequential for American families.