Federal Reserve research found US shoppers, not foreign exporters, bore most of the tariff cost
By Jim Manzon
For the first time in modern US history, the federal government paid out more in tariff refunds than it collected in June, handing billions back to importers while the shoppers who absorbed those costs at the checkout get nothing.
Treasury Department data showed net customs receipts fell to negative $25.6 billion (£19 billion) in June, as the government collected $23.6 billion (£17.7 billion) in duties but sent $49.2 billion (£36.8 billion) back to businesses. It was the sharpest sign yet of a reversal that began in May.
A Revenue Stream That Ran Dry
Between June 2025 and February 2026, tariffs brought in $27 billion (£20 billion) to $31 billion (£23 billion) a month. That flow collapsed after the Supreme Court ruled on 20 February that the levies imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful, in a 6-3 decision. May was nearly a wash, with refunds and collections both near $21.9 billion (£16.4 billion). June erased any doubt.
Customs officials estimated that roughly $166 billion (£124 billion) collected from about 330,000 importers became eligible for repayment. Around $81 billion (£60.6 billion) has gone out so far this fiscal year, against just $5 billion (£3.7 billion) in the same period a year earlier. The payouts pushed June’s federal deficit to $120 billion (£90 billion), a swing from a $27 billion (£20.2 billion) surplus a year earlier.
The Shoppers Who Won’t See a Cent
Here is the catch for households. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study found that about 90% of the roughly $175 billion (£131 billion) raised by the IEEPA tariffs was paid by American consumers and businesses, not foreign exporters. Research put the 2025 cost at around $1,000 (£749) per household as importers passed the duties down the supply chain into store prices.