Despite proclamations of a Democrat “comeback” during the summer, it was always only a matter of time before pollsters and analysts started to “correct” the record just before the election.
That’s the game we seem to play every election cycle, where polling shows Democrats surging when it’s hot outside but fading as the leaves begin to change. It’s almost like there are predictable ebbs and flows to election cycles, specifically mid-terms (presidential elections are far harder to predict). But nah, those fundamentals couldn’t be taken into account in the face of Morning Consult polls showing Democrats up seven points with two months to go.
So here we stand, less than three weeks before election day, and the shift is happening with fury. We’ve already seen articles from CNN and The Hill warning of a coming Republican victory. Now, even some Democrat election analysts are getting in on the act. Politico is moving races toward the GOP faster than one can reasonably keep up with. Meanwhile, Doug Schoen is outright saying the red wave cometh.
If only someone had predicted this many months ago, we wouldn’t have been so caught off-guard by these last-minute changes. But I digress, this should have been seen as inevitable to anyone paying attention. That’s not some blind proclamation whereby I’m just getting lucky. This is an election cycle that historically and fundamentally favors the Republican Party. Those that chose to ignore that in order to overdose on hopium did themselves a disservice.