It’s not a ‘new’ doctrine, but confirmation of plans to remain ‘outside of NATO structures’
By Franklin C. Miller, Daniel Skeffington, Real Clear Wire
On March 2, French President Emmanuel set out to redefine French nuclear doctrine for the ‘Third Nuclear Age’. Nuclear deterrence has been high on the European agenda for several months, including at the recent Munich Security Conference, where many spoke of how a ‘European nuclear deterrent’ might come to replace the U.S. nuclear forces on the continent.
Macron’s speech links into this debate, and some of his announcements may have merit. Allied participation in French nuclear exercises and the creation of a nuclear steering group are all well and good, so long as they do not attempt to interfere with NATO’s existing nuclear planning and force posture. In this respect, it is promising to see the Élysée engaging more substantively in European deterrence.
However, Macron’s announcements do not amount, as some have claimed, to a ‘new French nuclear doctrine.’ The purpose of these changes is to try and support a more ‘European’ nuclear deterrent without significant new investment or major alterations to France’s posture. France remains, and intends to remain, outside of NATO nuclear planning structures. Putting the rhetoric to one side, deterrent ‘guarantees’ are worthless if they are not integrated into NATO’s planning process. As such, whilst the force de frappe maintains credibility to deter attacks against France, it is not credible to support NATO because it is not within the primary nuclear security structure of the Alliance.